H5N1 bird flu struck another country today as Hungary became
the latest European nation to discover the deadly disease in migrating swans.
Over the past seven days, H5N1 has been in seven new countries; five of them
being in Europe. The results of this rapid spread are causing European nations
to take a variety of actions to protect both their poultry industry and their
citizens.
Yesterday, Albania banned the importation of poultry
products from any country that is known to have had occurrences of H5N1. At the
same time, Germany has ordered that domestic poultry be confined to indoor pens
as of February 17. Today, France also ordered that all domestic poultry be kept
in indoor pens, where it can not be exposed to migratory wild birds. conservation of wild birds
As of last week, Bulgaria banned the hunting of wild birds
by sportsmen. Bulgaria discovered H5N1 is several dead swans found in the
wetlands of the Danube River.
The spread of H5N1 is having immediate economic
consequences. In Italy, where the disease was discovered over the weekend,
sales of chicken dropped by 50% in the three days following the government
announcement that the disease was present in the country. Layoffs have already
started to occur.
conservation of wild birds |
On the other hand, Ireland is reporting that due to H5N1 in
other areas of Europe, high demand for Irish beef and lamb is actually forcing
prices higher. conservation
of wild birds
The economic impacts of a full scale bird flu pandemic
should not be underestimated. The Australian government is releasing a study
today which estimates the cost to global economy from a pandemic could be as
high as $4.4 Trillion dollars. This is significantly higher than previous
estimates by the World Bank, but even the Australian numbers may be
conservative.
The study estimated that in a worst case scenario, there
would be 142 million deaths worldwide. Some scientists believe that the actual
death count could be significantly higher; with up to 1 Billion people dying.
Undeveloped third world nations would be significantly harder hit than other
areas of the world.
The Australian estimates were put together by Professor
Warwick McKibbin, one of the world's leading economic modelers and a member of
the Australian Reserve Bank board, and Dr Alexandra Sidorenko, a health expert
at the Australian National University. According to their study, the overall
world economy could shrink by as much as 12.6% and would lead to a global
depression. conservationof wild birds
The study, in combination with the rapid spread of the
disease, is disturbing. It has been 38 years since the last pandemic flu
outbreak. Since the 19th century, pandemics have occurred at maximum intervals
of 40 years. This means that we are due. All of the flu pandemics that have
occurred in that time frame have originated from China and Southeast Asia. This
is exactly the point of origination for H5N1. And while a number of
pharmaceutical companies are working on, and testing bird flu vaccines, there
is a growing body of evidence that these may be ineffectual.
conservation of wild birds |
The bottom line is that there may not be enough time left to
head off a bird flu pandemic. This means that individuals and companies need to
start making their own preparations to deal with the bird flu. Yesterday,
Health and Human Services Secretary, Mike Leavitt told reporters that he has
been hammering home a message to the states that they can expect little or no
assistance from the federal government in the event of a pandemic. This means
that we are probably all on our own.
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